How we think about football with numbers. Statistical analysis and modelling, for interest and entertainment, never betting advice.
Why xG measures the quality of chances, and how it separates lucky results from real performance.
Starting from prior beliefs and updating with evidence, the way a good forecast model should.
The reasoning behind the numbers for the upcoming round, in plain language.
A calm, repeatable way to approach score-prediction games using probabilities.
What the maths can and cannot do for you, and how to set expectations honestly.