Score Forecasts This Week -Round 55 (May 2025)
Our 8-model ensemble shows strong agreement this round, with 6 out of 8 models converging on similar scorelines. Here's the fixture-by-fixture breakdown.
This Week's Fixtures
Round 55 presents an interesting set of fixtures with a mix of clear favourites and tightly contested matches. Our ensemble model has been running since Thursday morning, ingesting the latest team news, xG data, and market movements. Here's what the models are saying.
For the full probability matrices, head-to-head breakdowns, and alternative scoreline options, check our main predictions page. This article focuses on the reasoning behind each pick.
| Fixture | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace vs Arsenal | 0-1 | High |
| Man City vs Aston Villa | 2-0 | High |
| West Ham vs Leeds | 1-0 | Medium |
| Spurs vs Everton | 2-1 | Medium |
| Liverpool vs Brentford | 2-1 | High |
| Brighton vs Man Utd | 2-1 | Medium |
Fixture 1: Crystal Palace vs Arsenal
Arsenal's away record this season has been outstanding -they've conceded fewer than one goal per away match on average across the last 15 fixtures. Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park can be awkward opponents, but their home form has been poor in 2025, winning just 2 of their last 8 at home.
The models heavily favour a narrow Arsenal victory here. Palace's attacking output at home has dropped significantly since the turn of the year, averaging just 0.9 xG per home game over the last two months. Arsenal's defensive discipline on the road -just 12 goals conceded in 17 away games -makes a clean sheet the most likely outcome for the visitors.
Six of our eight models agree on an Arsenal win with a clean sheet. The split is between 0-1 and 0-2, with 0-1 slightly ahead. The Dixon-Coles model and market-implied model both strongly favour 0-1, which is our pick.
Alternative pick: 0-2 if you believe Arsenal will find a second. The probability gap between 0-1 (13.1%) and 0-2 (9.4%) is relatively small.
Fixture 2: Man City vs Aston Villa
City at the Etihad remain formidable. Villa's away form has been inconsistent, particularly against top-six opposition, where they've scored in just 3 of their last 9 away matches.
Manchester City at home is the most predictable scenario in this round. Their average home xG over the season is 2.3, while Villa's away xG against top-six sides sits at just 0.7. The defensive mismatch is significant -Villa have struggled to create chances on their travels against elite opposition.
The model consensus lands on 2-0 rather than 2-1 or 3-0. Villa's away goalscoring record against the top sides has been notably poor, and City's defence has tightened considerably since March. Seven of eight models agree on a City win to nil, with 2-0 the modal score.
Alternative pick: 3-0 if City are in ruthless form. The ELO and xG models slightly lean towards a higher-scoring City performance.
Fixture 3: West Ham vs Leeds
A tight, low-scoring affair is the most likely outcome. West Ham's home record gives them a slight edge, but this fixture has historically been close.
This is the tightest fixture of the round. West Ham's home form has been steady if unspectacular -they tend to grind out results at the London Stadium rather than blow teams away. Their average home score this season sits at 1.2 goals for, 0.9 against.
Leeds are a tricky away side who can frustrate opponents but have struggled to score on the road in recent weeks. The expected goals models show both teams below 1.2 xG, pointing to a low-scoring game. Our ensemble splits between 1-0 and 1-1, with 1-0 marginally ahead. This is the game where your pick matters most -if you can get this one right while others get it wrong, you gain a significant tiebreaker edge.
Alternative pick: 1-1 is almost equally likely. This is a genuine coin flip between the two scorelines. As an alternative, 0-0 at 8.2% is worth considering.
Fixture 4: Spurs vs Everton
Spurs are attacking but leaky at the back. Everton are likely to score but unlikely to win. Classic 2-1 territory.
Tottenham at home generate plenty of chances -their average home xG is 2.0 -but they also concede more than you'd expect from a top-half side. Their defensive xG against at home (1.2) is the highest of any team in the top eight.
Everton have been better on the road than their league position suggests, stealing goals against better teams through set pieces and counter-attacks. Our models see this as a match where both teams find the net, with Spurs' superior attacking output likely to see them through. The 2-1 scoreline has the highest single probability at 11.8%.
Alternative pick: 2-0 if you think Spurs' defence holds. The gap between 2-1 and 2-0 is narrow (11.8% vs 9.1%).
Fixture 5: Liverpool vs Brentford
Liverpool dominant at Anfield, but Brentford have a habit of scoring against anyone. Their xG away to top sides is higher than any team outside the top six.
Liverpool at Anfield are one of the most predictable home sides in the league -strong, commanding performances with an average of 2.2 goals scored at home. But Brentford are not a team that comes to sit back and defend. Their direct, aggressive style means they create chances even against elite defences.
Brentford have scored in 7 of their last 9 away games against top-six opposition. That's a remarkable record and one our models weigh heavily. A Liverpool win with Brentford scoring is the most probable outcome category, with 2-1 the modal scoreline at 12.4%. This is one of our highest-confidence picks of the round.
Alternative pick: 3-1 if you expect Liverpool to be clinical. Their finishing has been excellent in the last month.
Fixture 6: Brighton vs Man Utd
Brighton's home form has been superb. United remain inconsistent away from Old Trafford, but they're capable of grabbing a goal.
Brighton at the Amex have been one of the strongest home sides in the league, with a well-structured system that generates high xG consistently. Their average home xG of 1.9 is bolstered by a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.8 xG per game at home.
Manchester United's away form has been the story of their season -inconsistent, error-prone, but with enough individual quality to score against anyone. They've conceded first in 11 of their last 16 away games, which strongly suggests Brighton will find the first goal. The question is whether United can get one back. Our models say yes, more often than not, leading to a 2-1 prediction.
Alternative pick: 2-0 if you think United fail to respond. Their away capitulations have been frequent enough to make this viable (8.7% probability).
Golden Goal Analysis
Golden Goal Pick
Minute 8 -based on fixture-specific first-goal timing models
The Golden Goal pick is one of the trickiest parts of Premier League. First goal timing in football approximately follows an exponential-like distribution, with goals most commonly occurring between minutes 15 and 35 of the first half. However, the optimal pick depends on the specific set of fixtures.
This round features several matches where early goals are plausible. Liverpool at home tend to start aggressively, and their first-goal timing distribution is skewed earlier than the league average. Similarly, Man City at the Etihad have scored within the first 15 minutes in 8 of their last 12 home games.
Our fixture-specific model aggregates first-goal timing data across all six matches and identifies minute 8 as the optimal pick this round. The probability mass is concentrated in the 5-15 minute window, and minute 8 sits near the peak. For a deeper explanation of Golden Goal strategy, see our strategy guide.
Round Summary
This is classified as a high confidence round -defined as one where 6 or more of our 8 models agree on at least 4 of the 6 fixture picks. The model agreement is particularly strong for Crystal Palace vs Arsenal (0-1), Man City vs Aston Villa (2-0), and Liverpool vs Brentford (2-1).
The uncertain fixture is West Ham vs Leeds. If you're a Pro subscriber, you'll see our alternative scenario set for this round, which explores a different scoreline for the West Ham fixture. Check the full predictions page for details.
Total goals across our six picks: 13 (average 2.17 per game). This is slightly below the Premier League season average of 2.7, reflecting the defensive matchups in several of these fixtures. If you think we're too conservative, consider bumping one of the 2-1 picks to 3-1 -Liverpool vs Brentford would be our suggestion if you want more goals.