Forecasts refreshed every gameweek. For analysis and entertainment only.
What does "confidence" mean? Confidence is the model's probability for an outcome, not a promise. We build it with Bayesian updating: a starting estimate is adjusted by recent form, expected goals, and prior results to land on a number. Because it is a probability, a high confidence still leaves real room for the other result. For example, 72% confidence also means we expect to be wrong roughly 1 time in 4, and even our most confident forecasts can and do go the other way. Football is genuinely uncertain. Treat these as analysis and entertainment, never as a sure thing.
Arsenal
WWDWL
2 -1
72% confidence
Chelsea
WLWDW
Home Win
54%
Draw
22%
Away Win
24%
Liverpool
WWWDW
3 -1
68% confidence
Wolves
LLDLW
Home Win
71%
Draw
16%
Away Win
13%
Man City
WDWWW
2 -0
64% confidence
Fulham
DWLWD
Home Win
66%
Draw
19%
Away Win
15%
Tottenham
LWDWL
1 -1
58% confidence
Newcastle
WWDLW
Home Win
38%
Draw
28%
Away Win
34%
🔒

Detailed probabilities available to Pro members

Unlock Pro
Aston Villa
WWLDW
2 -2
45% confidence
Brighton
DWWLD
Home Win
40%
Draw
26%
Away Win
34%
🔒

Detailed probabilities available to Pro members

Unlock Pro
West Ham
LDLWL
0 -2
61% confidence
Man United
WWDWD
Home Win
25%
Draw
23%
Away Win
52%
🔒

Detailed probabilities available to Pro members

Unlock Pro